Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI) reported a
98% YoY jump in FY12 net profit to IDR1.2t. This came
on the heels of higher-than-expected other income. Its revenue soared
77% YoY to IDR2.4t on strong pre-sales and higher average selling
prices. On a quarterly basis, net profit increased by 113% to IDR454b
in 4Q12, lifting net margin to a high of 62% (3Q12: 35%). During
the year, the average selling price in Serpong Township has risen
around 30% YoY to IDR12m psm.
2013 Performance Forecast, We project
ASRI’s marketing sales will grow to IDR4.3t in FY13F and IDR4.9t in FY14F
from IDR3.7t in FY12, representing a 5-7% increase over our previous
forecasts. Our upgrade is premised on higher residential land price in
Pasar Kemis in FY13F, up from IDR1.6m psm to IDR2m psm (to be launched
in March-April 2013). Our FY13F-14F net profit forecasts thus go up by 1-3%.
Pasar Kemis remains the key project to watch. We believe the upcoming
residential estates projects in Pasar Kemis will thrive given that
each unit will be priced at around IDR500m-1b, which in our view is the
right market segment, and the land price of around IDR1.9-2.0m psm
is a discount to its competitors’ at IDR2.5m psm (ie, CitraRaya Tangerang).
Moreover, Pasar Kemis is easily accessible via the Serpong-Balaraja
toll road nearby.
Recommendation and valuation:
On valuation, rolling over our land market valuation to end of
2013, our TP is IDR1,415, providing 40% upside potential from current price of IDR1,010.
Performance Forecast:
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